Wednesday, September 15, 2004

After the election

I think this is a very thoughtful theory by Al on the possibilities of either the Democratic or Republican parties splitting up in the aftermath of the 2004 result. Quick take - whichever party wins will be the most in danger.

There is a little bit of precedent from this side of the pond. In 1992 John Major's government was re-elected into power with a 15-seat majority in the House of Commons. There were problems however. Tensions that had built up within the party, especially over Europe, that Maggie Thatcher had kept under control broke loose big time. Victory and power amplified the media spotlight, and made it a focus of opposition attention. The party tore itself apart, and went down to a humiliating defeat in 1997. The Tory civil war did not end - it continued under William Hague, and claimed its most recent scalp with the coup against Iain Duncan Smith last year.

Although it might not happen in 2004, it is pretty difficult not to imagine both parties undergoing some shifts in the next few years.

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